The road ahead
Around the world, there’s huge uncertainty about the future, and understandably so. One thing is clear, however: whatever the future looks like, widespread change is inevitable. Generative AI tools will replace vast swathes of the white collar workforce, and AI-enabled humanoid robots will step into manufacturing, retail and other manual labour-driven sectors. At the same time, advances in synthetic biology mean that we’re all likely to live longer (barring the apocalypse, of course…), so the needs of the market will shift too.
It’s a confusing time, and most people are asking the question, “What does all this mean for me and mine?” One of the most hotly-debated topics is the future of the work. Will people still have jobs? What will they be? How will they make a living in this new world we’re racing towards?
Predictions vary greatly. Some talk about a golden age of prosperity, others about mass unemployment. It’s hard to draw any conclusions from individual opinions, predictions and studies. Taken in aggregate, though, the volume of discourse on this subject is beginning to reveal some patterns. I keep a close eye on new developments relating to the future of work, and the trends I see are clear.
Looking three to five years out, to around 2030, the most likely scenario despite the doom-mongering in the press is that global employment levels remain pretty much stable. Depending on where you live and what you do, this may be good news or bad, but that overall stability hides plenty of disruption. While talent and labour will remain in demand, the nature of most jobs will change significantly. The World Economic Forum’s Future of Jobs report predicts that over the next few years, around 59% of workers will need significant retraining, even if they stay in the same roles. Lack of jobs isn’t the real issue - skills mismatch is. Our current workforce is wildly unprepared for the demands of the market, and this lack of suitability will increase as technology continues to accelerate. Without training workers, companies will be left behind. Without upskilling themselves, employees will be left out in the cold.
Over the next ten years, the trend continues and we’re most likely to see an increase in job levels - although the timing of the arrival of AGI, which now seems inevitable, may impact this outcome. Many of these employment gains will come in developing markets; technology will level the playing field and advanced economies will see flat or slightly declining employment levels as they struggle to compete on cost with other parts of the world. Some industries will shrink significantly or may even disappear entirely, but this will be offset by growth in new sectors.
While we can complain about whether AI “should” be allowed to replace humans in certain areas, the demands of the market will be the ultimate judge. It’s similar to the impact of Spotify on the music industry - musicians rail about the fact that they should be paid more for their work, but audiences clamour for the convenience of streaming platforms. The result is that what used to be valuable now isn’t worth nearly as much. Regardless of your personal opinions on the topic, none of us are owed a living. We have to adapt and find ways to continue to provide value.
What that really means becomes a little clearer as we look even further ahead. It’s hard to conceive of what 2045 will bring, but jobs will almost certainly still exist. They’ll be very different, however, and likely focused on human qualities - connection, compassion, creativity. How challenging the next 20 years are depends as much on policy and leadership as it does on technology, but there are three viable paths that you, as a company or an individual, can take.
Firstly, most obviously, you can focus on developing the AI tools that shape our future. This could be in a general sense (the foundational technologies) or a narrow one (the niche use of AI and other tech).
Secondly, you could lean into creating deeply human experiences - unique, people-driven products, services and activities that satisfy our emotional needs in a logical world.
Your third option is to combine the two, leveraging technology to enable human connection.
Which path will you choose?
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